What’s happening To Residential Market After Corona?コロナで住宅市場どうなる?

What’s happening To Residential Market After Corona?コロナで住宅市場どうなる?

Hello everyone! Shima!
Fudousan-Jisho Youtube Channel

Today, I’d like to talk about this subject. For details, please refer to the following video ” What’s happening To Residential Market After Corona?” delivered before.

What’s happening To Residential Market After Corona?


不動産英語 Newly built condominium (新築マンション)

Generally Seller is a real estate developer

<Effect of the corona>
・Decrease in visitors to model rooms
(For example, the condo for Olympic athletes  “Harumi Flag” also announced the postponement of the model room operation.)

・The number of condominiums sold in the Tokyo metropolitan area in April 2020 was 686, a decrease of about 50% from the previous year and lowest number so far

<Forecast for the future>
・Currently, the average selling price of newly built condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area is JPY73M (JPY58M in 2013).
・It’s difficult to forecast a big price drop.
・Condominium developer’s oligopoly is progressing, and each company has sufficient cash, so no need to discount condo immediately. (Major developers account for about 46% of the total supply (in 2018))
・There is no need to lower prices and sell quickly.
・And unlike the Lehman shock, the impact on stock prices is not so great.
→ Therefore, developers will decide the property price by looking at the popularity of each property.


 不動産英語 Used condominium (中古マンション)

Sellers are mainly individuals and normal company rather than real estate developers.

<Effect of the corona virus>
・Number of successful deals in the Tokyo metropolitan area: 1692 in May 2020 (-38.5% in the previous year)
・In the five main wards of Tokyo, the number of transaction was 675 condos from March and May 2020, with an average contract price of JPY59.86M/condo (-36.7% in the previous year).



<Forecast for the future>
・unit prices of used condos have been rising
・However, the number of new registrations of used condominiums (stock) has continued to increase, while the number of transaction has decreased after Corona virus.
・As a reason for the sale from sellers perspective, it is assumed that there is a need to get cash due to the influence of Corona.
→ Therefore, I guess that there is a possibility of a price decline due to an increase in used condo stock and, for some sellers, the necessity of getting cash immediately.


不動産英語 Detached house (戸建て)

For new detached house, sellers are many real estate developers, and for used detached house, sellers are individuals and many corporations rather than real estate developers.

<effect of the corona>
・Number of transaction in the Tokyo metropolitan area was 779 in May 2020 (-20.5% in the previous year)


<Forecast for the future>
・Unlike condominiums, prices have not changed significantly since Abenomics.
・Japan is facing an aging society and the problem of increasing vacant houses (According to a housing and land survey released by the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry in October 2018, vacant houses accounted for 13.6% of the total number of houses in Japan, it’s the highest record so far and the number is continually increasing, 8.46M houses)
・Increased supply to demand
(Along with the declining birthrate, the number of DINKS(double income no kids) who want condo with good access in the city center is increasing.)
・Long-term downward trend in prices

・空き家問題も表面化(総務省が26日発表した2018年10月時点の住宅・土地統計調査によると、国内の住宅総数に占める空き家の割合は過去最高の13.6%。戸数も過去最多の846万戸 )

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